Empirical Forecasts — Illinois River (Hwy 16) — 2026-09-28

Hourly records: 24 — claims (≥8 %): 4, no-rise-indicated: 20, not a forecast (gauge already within reach): 0
Settled (horizon passed): 24

Each hour the engine states the calibrated chance the gauge rises to the next level within its horizon. Below 8 % it says "No rise indicated"; those hours are graded on their miss rate, not as claims. A gauge sitting just under a level gets no probability (a crossing from there is not a rise the engine forecasts). Experimental.

Illinois River (Hwy 16)

04:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (271 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.1 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~0.7 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

03:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (271 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.1 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~0.7 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

02:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (271 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.1 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~0.7 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

01:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (274 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.1 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~0.7 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

00:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (278 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.1 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~0.7 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

23:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (281 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.1 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~0.7 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

22:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (284 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.1 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~0.7 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

21:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (287 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.1 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~0.7 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

20:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (284 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.1 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~0.7 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

19:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (290 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.2 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~0.7 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

18:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (287 cfs). Rain 24 h: 1.0 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~2.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

17:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (296 cfs). Rain 24 h: 3.4 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~5.2 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

16:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (296 cfs). Rain 24 h: 5.9 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~5.2 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

15:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (299 cfs). Rain 24 h: 8.4 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~7.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

14:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (299 cfs). Rain 24 h: 9.5 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~7.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

13:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (303 cfs). Rain 24 h: 10.1 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~7.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

12:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (306 cfs). Rain 24 h: 10.9 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~7.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

11:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (309 cfs). Rain 24 h: 12.4 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~5 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

10:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (309 cfs). Rain 24 h: 16.3 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~5 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

09:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (312 cfs). Rain 24 h: 19.6 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of HIGH within 30 h ~5 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max medium — no rise indicated — correct negative

08:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (309 cfs). Rain 24 h: 22.4 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: ~10 % chance of rising to HIGH within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max medium — did not rise

07:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (299 cfs). Rain 24 h: 22.6 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: ~10 % chance of rising to HIGH within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max medium — did not rise

06:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (281 cfs). Rain 24 h: 22.6 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: ~10 % chance of rising to HIGH within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max medium — did not rise

05:18 UTC — gauge tier medium (266 cfs). Rain 24 h: 22.6 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: ~10 % chance of rising to HIGH within 30 h (claim) - Outcome: max medium — did not rise