Empirical Forecasts — Illinois River (Hwy 16) — 2026-10-01

Hourly records: 24 — claims (≥8 %): 0, no-rise-indicated: 0, not a forecast (gauge already within reach): 24
Settled (horizon passed): 0

Each hour the engine states the calibrated chance the gauge rises to the next level within its horizon. Below 8 % it says "No rise indicated"; those hours are graded on their miss rate, not as claims. A gauge sitting just under a level gets no probability (a crossing from there is not a rise the engine forecasts). Experimental.

Illinois River (Hwy 16)

04:18 UTC — gauge tier low (243 cfs). Rain 24 h: 10.6 mm (moist soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-10-03 10:18 UTC

03:18 UTC — gauge tier low (243 cfs). Rain 24 h: 10.1 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-10-03 09:18 UTC

02:18 UTC — gauge tier low (243 cfs). Rain 24 h: 10.1 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-10-03 08:18 UTC

01:18 UTC — gauge tier low (243 cfs). Rain 24 h: 10.1 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-10-03 07:18 UTC

00:18 UTC — gauge tier low (243 cfs). Rain 24 h: 10.1 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-10-03 06:18 UTC

23:18 UTC — gauge tier low (243 cfs). Rain 24 h: 10.1 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-10-03 05:18 UTC

22:18 UTC — gauge tier low (245 cfs). Rain 24 h: 9.1 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-10-03 04:18 UTC

21:18 UTC — gauge tier low (245 cfs). Rain 24 h: 7.3 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-10-03 03:18 UTC

20:18 UTC — gauge tier low (245 cfs). Rain 24 h: 6.5 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-10-03 02:18 UTC

19:18 UTC — gauge tier low (232 cfs). Rain 24 h: 5.7 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-10-03 01:18 UTC

18:18 UTC — gauge tier low (234 cfs). Rain 24 h: 3.6 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-10-03 00:18 UTC

17:18 UTC — gauge tier low (243 cfs). Rain 24 h: 1.9 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-10-02 23:18 UTC

16:18 UTC — gauge tier low (243 cfs). Rain 24 h: 1.3 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-10-02 22:18 UTC

15:18 UTC — gauge tier low (243 cfs). Rain 24 h: 1.0 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-10-02 21:18 UTC

14:18 UTC — gauge tier low (243 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.8 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-10-02 20:18 UTC

13:18 UTC — gauge tier low (243 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.8 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-10-02 19:18 UTC

12:18 UTC — gauge tier low (243 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.8 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-10-02 18:18 UTC

11:18 UTC — gauge tier low (243 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.8 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-10-02 17:18 UTC

10:18 UTC — gauge tier low (243 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.8 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-10-02 16:18 UTC

09:18 UTC — gauge tier low (243 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.8 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-10-02 15:18 UTC

08:18 UTC — gauge tier low (243 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.7 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-10-02 14:18 UTC

07:18 UTC — gauge tier low (243 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.6 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-10-02 13:18 UTC

06:18 UTC — gauge tier low (243 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.2 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-10-02 12:18 UTC

05:18 UTC — gauge tier low (243 cfs). Rain 24 h: 0.2 mm (damp soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-10-02 11:18 UTC