← 2026-10-01

Empirical Forecasts — Illinois River (Hwy 16) — 2026-10-02

Hourly records: 4 — claims (≥8 %): 0, no-rise-indicated: 0, not a forecast (gauge already within reach): 4
Settled (horizon passed): 0

Each hour the engine states the calibrated chance the gauge rises to the next level within its horizon. Below 8 % it says "No rise indicated"; those hours are graded on their miss rate, not as claims. A gauge sitting just under a level gets no probability (a crossing from there is not a rise the engine forecasts). Experimental.

Illinois River (Hwy 16)

08:18 UTC — gauge tier low (243 cfs). Rain 24 h: 11.9 mm (moist soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-10-03 14:18 UTC

07:18 UTC — gauge tier low (243 cfs). Rain 24 h: 11.1 mm (moist soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-10-03 13:18 UTC

06:18 UTC — gauge tier low (243 cfs). Rain 24 h: 11.5 mm (moist soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-10-03 12:18 UTC

05:18 UTC — gauge tier low (243 cfs). Rain 24 h: 11.0 mm (moist soil). - Not a forecast — gauge already within reach of MEDIUM; no probability issued - Pending until 2026-10-03 11:18 UTC

← 2026-10-01