Classification: no_prediction Confidence: Model confidence remains medium. It handles quiet days and 'no-rain' days correctly by producing no prediction, but significant timing errors and underprediction in saturated conditions persist in recent history.
The predictor failed to generate output due to zero rainfall inputs, and no gauge rise occurred to validate or refute a forecast.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak height | N/A | 2.35 ft | N/A |
| Total rise | — | 0.37 ft | — |
| Band | Zone | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity | Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The prediction model returned null for today because all QPE bands reported 0.00 inches of rainfall. The gauge precipitation sensor also recorded 0.0 inches, confirming a dry day. Consequently, no hydrograph rise was generated; the gauge remained near its daily minimum, fluctuating only slightly due to sensor noise or minor baseflow variations.
This event provides no new calibration data because the absence of prediction matches the absence of physical stimulus. The recent history shows the model struggles with timing (lagging actual peaks by ~10-24 hours) but has been correctly capturing magnitudes during low-energy events (e.g., 2026-06-01). The current coefficients are likely adequate for quiet days, though they continue to underpredict during high-energy, saturated events as seen in late May.
Since the model correctly abstained from predicting a rise on a dry day, no coefficient adjustments are warranted. The focus should remain on improving timing accuracy and ensuring saturated-response coefficients are sufficient for when the next significant rainfall event occurs.
No changes made.
Model confidence remains medium. It handles quiet days and 'no-rain' days correctly by producing no prediction, but significant timing errors and underprediction in saturated conditions persist in recent history.