Classification: correct Confidence: Model performance remains stable for low-magnitude events. The recent history shows a trend of correcting underpredictions in saturated conditions; this event confirms that the current coefficients do not over-predict for minimal rainfall.
The model accurately predicted the peak stage of 1.56 ft, matching the observed maximum exactly despite a significant timing error caused by daily aggregation lag.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak height | 1.56 ft | 1.56 ft | +0.00 ft |
| Total rise | — | 0.13 ft | — |
| Band | Zone | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity | Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | falling_water | 0.07" | 0.04 ft | LIGHT | NORMAL |
Headline: Watch — Recent rainfall is in the lower-bound range preceding rises to LOW Settled outcome: no_change (reached below_low) LLM said headline was correct: True Notes: The empirical model predicted 'below_low' tier with a 'no_change' outcome. The actual max tier reached was 'below_low', confirming the headline was correct.
The prediction magnitude was spot-on, with the predicted peak of 1.56 ft matching the actual gauge maximum. The timing error of 4.1 hours is attributable to the difference between the predicted timestamp (early morning UTC, which corresponds to late night local time) and the actual observed peak (late afternoon local time), reflecting the broad hydrograph shape and daily aggregation methodology rather than a failure in volume estimation. The gauge precipitation sensor recorded 0.0" in 24 hours, while QPE showed minor scattered inputs (~0.5-0.7" total), confirming a quiet day with negligible new runoff generation.
No changes made.
Model performance remains stable for low-magnitude events. The recent history shows a trend of correcting underpredictions in saturated conditions; this event confirms that the current coefficients do not over-predict for minimal rainfall.