Classification: no_prediction Confidence: Model confidence remains medium. The lack of predictions on days with low gauge precipitation (June 8, 14, 15) suggests a dependency on the gauge sensor rather than QPE, which may limit utility during stratiform rain that misses the gauge but hits the basin. However, the massive overprediction on June 13 was addressed. Further events with gauge rain are needed to solidify calibration.
The prediction system failed to generate a forecast for 2026-06-15 due to zero recorded gauge precipitation, despite a minor observed gauge rise of 0.89 ft to 3.63 ft.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak height | N/A | 3.63 ft | N/A |
| Total rise | — | 0.89 ft | — |
| Band | Zone | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity | Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The model did not produce a predicted peak stage because the gauge precipitation sensor reported 0.0 inches for the 24-hour period. Consequently, no calibration adjustments can be derived from the comparison between predicted and observed peaks, as there is no predicted value to grade.
The observed hydrograph shows a peak of 3.63 ft at midnight, followed by a decline to 2.74 ft by the end of the day. Given the saturated antecedent conditions (7-day average 4.47 inches) and the lack of new rainfall, this rise is likely attributable to the slow recession or lingering effects of the massive flood event from June 13-14. The 'sharp' shape noted in the data likely reflects the start of the observation window coinciding with the tail end of the previous event's hydrograph.
Since the predictor correctly identified the absence of new forcing rain (via gauge sensor), the failure to predict is a data-input issue rather than a model logic failure. No coefficient adjustments are recommended.
No changes made.
Model confidence remains medium. The lack of predictions on days with low gauge precipitation (June 8, 14, 15) suggests a dependency on the gauge sensor rather than QPE, which may limit utility during stratiform rain that misses the gauge but hits the basin. However, the massive overprediction on June 13 was addressed. Further events with gauge rain are needed to solidify calibration.