Classification: no_prediction Confidence: Model confidence remains medium. Repeated 'no_prediction' outcomes on days with minor rises indicate a potential blind spot in the trigger mechanism when gauge rain is zero but watershed moisture is high.
The prediction model failed to generate a forecast for 2026-06-16, likely due to zero gauge-precipitation readings, despite a minor observed gauge rise of 0.45 ft to 2.74 ft.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak height | N/A | 2.74 ft | N/A |
| Total rise | — | 0.45 ft | — |
| Band | Zone | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity | Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The predictor did not output a numeric value for today, resulting in a 'no_prediction' classification. This appears to be a data-availability or trigger issue, as the gauge precipitation sensor recorded 0.0" in 24 hours, likely causing the model to skip processing for a non-event day.
However, the observed data shows a small, sharp rise of 0.45 ft, peaking at 2.74 ft at the very start of the day (00:00). This rise occurred despite negligible new rainfall recorded in the QPE bands (only 0.02-0.04" late in the day) and zero gauge rain. The rise is likely residual recession or local minor inflow from the saturated watershed conditions established in previous days.
Since no prediction was generated, no coefficient calibration is possible or recommended. The system correctly identified the lack of significant rainfall forcing, but the absence of a baseline prediction for a day with minor hydrological activity suggests the trigger threshold might be too sensitive to gauge-only precipitation inputs.
No changes made.
Model confidence remains medium. Repeated 'no_prediction' outcomes on days with minor rises indicate a potential blind spot in the trigger mechanism when gauge rain is zero but watershed moisture is high.