Classification: correct Confidence: The model demonstrates high reliability in correctly identifying quiet days and near-baseline conditions. The close match between predicted and actual peaks (1.47 vs 1.45 ft) reinforces confidence in the baseflow representation under dry antecedent moisture conditions.
The model correctly predicted a near-baseline peak stage of 1.47 ft, aligning with the observed 1.45 ft peak during a dry day with no gauge-detected rainfall.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak height | 1.47 ft | 1.45 ft | +0.02 ft |
| Total rise | — | 0.45 ft | — |
| Band | Zone | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity | Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ? | 0.42" | 0.00 ft | MODERATE | DRY |
| 2 | ? | 0.71" | 0.00 ft | HEAVY | DRY |
Headline: No rise indicated by recent rainfall Settled outcome: None (reached None) LLM said headline was correct: True Notes: The empirical model correctly predicted no rise to the 'low' tier (3.0 ft), as the actual peak of 1.45 ft remained well below this threshold.
The event on 2026-09-13 was a quiet day characterized by zero rainfall recorded at the gauge (0.0" in 24hr) and QPE values of 0.00" across both watershed bands. The gauge exhibited a minimal rise of 0.45 ft from a baseline near 1.0 ft, peaking at 1.45 ft at 00:00 Central Time. The hydrograph shape was described as sharp, but given the negligible precipitation, this likely reflects minor baseflow fluctuations or sensor noise rather than a storm runoff event.
The prediction issued at 05:20 UTC (12:20 Central Time on 2026-09-12, effectively the 'previous day' in terms of data availability for a 13th daily summary, or simply the most recent archive entry) forecast a peak of 1.47 ft. The predicted peak (1.47 ft) is within 1.4% of the actual peak (1.45 ft), which falls well within the +/-15-20% threshold for a 'correct' classification. The timing error of 1.3 hours is also negligible in the context of a near-static hydrograph. The model correctly identified that no significant rise was expected, effectively calling a 'no rise' or 'baseline' day, which was borne out by the actual gauge staying below the 'low_floatable' (4.0 ft) and 'optimal' (6.0 ft) thresholds.
The empirical forecast headline also indicated 'No rise indicated by recent rainfall' with 0% probability of rising to the low tier, which was consistent with the actual outcome. No calibration adjustments are warranted given the high accuracy of the prediction relative to the observed quiet conditions.
Predictions issued today (archive): 2 active issuance(s) from 2026-09-13T05:20:02.484574+00:00 to 2026-09-13T06:20:02.258213+00:00; issued peaks ranged 1.44 to 1.47 ft. The prediction graded below is the HIGHEST issued peak of the day (issued 2026-09-13T05:20:02.484574+00:00), not the last card of the day.
Grade-only mode: no adjustments suggested; calibration is fit offline.
The model demonstrates high reliability in correctly identifying quiet days and near-baseline conditions. The close match between predicted and actual peaks (1.47 vs 1.45 ft) reinforces confidence in the baseflow representation under dry antecedent moisture conditions.