Classification: correct Confidence: The model continues to perform well in quiet, dry conditions, accurately reflecting baseline levels when runoff potential is low. The match in magnitude reinforces the current calibration for low-intensity events.
The model correctly predicted a flat, near-baseline gauge reading of 0.57 ft, matching the observed maximum of 0.57 ft on a dry day with negligible rainfall.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak height | 0.57 ft | 0.57 ft | +0.00 ft |
| Total rise | — | 0.02 ft | — |
| Band | Zone | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity | Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ? | 0.32" | 0.00 ft | LIGHT | VERY DRY |
| 2 | ? | 0.39" | 0.00 ft | MODERATE | VERY DRY |
Headline: No rise indicated by recent rainfall Settled outcome: None (reached None) LLM said headline was correct: True Notes: The empirical model correctly predicted 'No rise indicated by recent rainfall' (p_rise: 0.0), which was borne out by the flat hydrograph and 0.02 ft daily range.
On September 21, 2026, the Richland Creek gauge exhibited a flat hydrograph with a daily range of only 0.02 ft (0.55 to 0.57 ft). The gauge's precipitation sensor recorded 0.0 inches of rainfall for the 24-hour period. While the QPE data indicated very light rainfall (0.32" in Band 1 and 0.39" in Band 2), the watershed's antecedent moisture state was VERY DRY (7-day average 0.4"), meaning this minimal precipitation was likely absorbed by the soil and did not generate measurable surface runoff or a rise in stream stage.
The prediction issued at 11:20 UTC estimated a peak of 0.57 ft, which matches the observed daily maximum stage exactly (0.0 ft error). Although the predicted peak time (12:20 UTC) was roughly 3.1 hours later than the observed daily maximum time (04:15 local / 09:15 UTC), the magnitude was spot-on. In the context of a 'flat' hydrograph with negligible rise, a perfect magnitude match constitutes a 'correct' classification, as the model accurately identified that no significant rise was imminent and the gauge would remain near baseline.
Predictions issued today (archive): 15 active issuance(s) from 2026-09-21T09:20:02.331958+00:00 to 2026-09-21T23:20:02.555708+00:00; issued peaks ranged 0.54 to 0.57 ft. The prediction graded below is the HIGHEST issued peak of the day (issued 2026-09-21T11:20:02.504407+00:00), not the last card of the day.
Grade-only mode: no adjustments suggested; calibration is fit offline.
The model continues to perform well in quiet, dry conditions, accurately reflecting baseline levels when runoff potential is low. The match in magnitude reinforces the current calibration for low-intensity events.