Classification: correct Confidence: Model maintains high confidence in suppressing predictions for dry-day events where rainfall is below the effective abstraction threshold. The 'correct' classification reinforces the robustness of the SCS-CN effective rain calculation under VERY DRY conditions.
The model correctly predicted a near-baseline peak stage of 0.35 ft, aligning closely with the observed 0.38 ft maximum on a very dry day with minimal effective rainfall.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak height | 0.35 ft | 0.38 ft | -0.03 ft |
| Total rise | — | 0.04 ft | — |
| Band | Zone | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity | Moisture |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ? | 0.33" | 0.00 ft | MODERATE | VERY DRY |
| 2 | ? | 0.39" | 0.00 ft | MODERATE | VERY DRY |
Headline: No rise indicated by recent rainfall Settled outcome: None (reached None) LLM said headline was correct: True Notes: The empirical model correctly indicated 'No rise indicated by recent rainfall' (p_rise 0.0), which was borne out by the flat hydrograph and negligible stage change.
The event was characterized by extremely low antecedent moisture (VERY DRY tier, 7-day avg 0.726") and negligible gauge-detected precipitation (0.0"). The QPE data showed minor isolated rain events (max ~0.4" in Band 2) that likely fell below the effective abstraction threshold given the dry conditions, resulting in a negligible hydrograph response (0.04 ft rise, flat shape). The prediction of a 0.35 ft peak (issued at 22:20 UTC) compared to the observed 0.38 ft peak (16:15 CST) represents a small error in magnitude (-7.9%) and a timing discrepancy due to the flat, near-baseline nature of the hydrograph where the 'peak' is essentially the baseline noise floor.
Predictions issued today (archive): 8 active issuance(s) from 2026-10-01T21:20:02.153497+00:00 to 2026-10-02T04:20:02.562900+00:00; issued peaks ranged 0.33 to 0.35 ft. The prediction graded below is the HIGHEST issued peak of the day (issued 2026-10-01T22:20:02.001745+00:00), not the last card of the day.
Grade-only mode: no adjustments suggested; calibration is fit offline.
Model maintains high confidence in suppressing predictions for dry-day events where rainfall is below the effective abstraction threshold. The 'correct' classification reinforces the robustness of the SCS-CN effective rain calculation under VERY DRY conditions.