Empirical Forecasts — Richland Creek — 2026-06-13

Forecasts archived: 6
Settled (expiry passed): 6

Richland Creek

03:18 UTC — current tier: low. QPE 6h: 92.8 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence low - Outcome: MISSED_HIGHER (actual max: high, crossed: 03:30 UTC)

02:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 59.1 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band above_p75, confidence low - Outcome: MISSED_HIGHER (actual max: high, crossed: 02:30 UTC)

01:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 49.4 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band p50_to_p75, confidence low - Outcome: MISSED_HIGHER (actual max: high, crossed: 02:30 UTC)

00:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 39.4 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band above_p75, confidence high - Outcome: MISSED_HIGHER (actual max: high, crossed: 01:15 UTC)

23:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 20.4 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p50_to_p75, confidence high - Outcome: MISSED_HIGHER (actual max: high, crossed: 01:15 UTC)

22:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 10.4 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p25_to_p50, confidence medium - Outcome: MISSED_HIGHER (actual max: high, crossed: 01:15 UTC)