Empirical Forecasts — Richland Creek — 2026-09-11

Hourly records: 24 — claims (≥8 %): 0, no-rise-indicated: 24, not a forecast (gauge already within reach): 0
Settled (horizon passed): 24

Each hour the engine states the calibrated chance the gauge rises to the next level within its horizon. Below 8 % it says "No rise indicated"; those hours are graded on their miss rate, not as claims. A gauge sitting just under a level gets no probability (a crossing from there is not a rise the engine forecasts). Experimental.

Richland Creek

04:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.15 ft). Rain 6 h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

03:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.21 ft). Rain 6 h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

02:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.24 ft). Rain 6 h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

01:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.27 ft). Rain 6 h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

00:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.27 ft). Rain 6 h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

23:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.31 ft). Rain 6 h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

22:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.35 ft). Rain 6 h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

21:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.37 ft). Rain 6 h: 0.1 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

20:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.38 ft). Rain 6 h: 0.1 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

19:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.38 ft). Rain 6 h: 2.5 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

18:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.41 ft). Rain 6 h: 6.8 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~4.4 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

17:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.42 ft). Rain 6 h: 8.9 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~4.4 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

16:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.42 ft). Rain 6 h: 11.6 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~3.1 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

15:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.96 ft). Rain 6 h: 13.6 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~4.6 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

14:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.5 ft). Rain 6 h: 19.1 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~1.9 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

13:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.5 ft). Rain 6 h: 28.2 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~1.9 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

12:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.5 ft). Rain 6 h: 27.9 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~1.9 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

11:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.52 ft). Rain 6 h: 27.9 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~1.9 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

10:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.52 ft). Rain 6 h: 29.8 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~1.9 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

09:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.44 ft). Rain 6 h: 29.6 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~1.9 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

08:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.44 ft). Rain 6 h: 37.7 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~1.9 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

07:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.35 ft). Rain 6 h: 28.5 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~1.9 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

06:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.29 ft). Rain 6 h: 24.6 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~1.9 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

05:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.25 ft). Rain 6 h: 22.5 mm (damp soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~1.9 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative