Empirical Forecasts — Richland Creek — 2026-09-12

Hourly records: 24 — claims (≥8 %): 2, no-rise-indicated: 22, not a forecast (gauge already within reach): 0
Settled (horizon passed): 24

Each hour the engine states the calibrated chance the gauge rises to the next level within its horizon. Below 8 % it says "No rise indicated"; those hours are graded on their miss rate, not as claims. A gauge sitting just under a level gets no probability (a crossing from there is not a rise the engine forecasts). Experimental.

Richland Creek

04:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.56 ft). Rain 6 h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

03:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.56 ft). Rain 6 h: 0.5 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~1.9 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

02:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.71 ft). Rain 6 h: 0.8 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~5.1 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

01:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.71 ft). Rain 6 h: 0.8 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~5.1 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

00:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.74 ft). Rain 6 h: 12.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: ~22.6 % chance of rising to LOW within 12 h (claim) - Outcome: max below_low — did not rise

23:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.74 ft). Rain 6 h: 13.7 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: ~22.6 % chance of rising to LOW within 12 h (claim) - Outcome: max below_low — did not rise

22:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.01 ft). Rain 6 h: 13.7 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~4.6 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

21:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.01 ft). Rain 6 h: 13.2 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~4.6 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

20:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.04 ft). Rain 6 h: 12.9 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~4.6 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

19:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.07 ft). Rain 6 h: 12.9 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~3.1 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

18:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.96 ft). Rain 6 h: 1.7 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

17:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.97 ft). Rain 6 h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

16:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.98 ft). Rain 6 h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

15:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (0.99 ft). Rain 6 h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

14:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.02 ft). Rain 6 h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

13:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.02 ft). Rain 6 h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

12:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.05 ft). Rain 6 h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

11:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.05 ft). Rain 6 h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

10:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.06 ft). Rain 6 h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

09:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.08 ft). Rain 6 h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

08:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.09 ft). Rain 6 h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

07:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.11 ft). Rain 6 h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

06:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.12 ft). Rain 6 h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative

05:18 UTC — gauge tier below_low (1.15 ft). Rain 6 h: 0.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: No rise indicated — chance of LOW within 12 h ~0.3 % (below the 8 % claim line) - Outcome: max below_low — no rise indicated — correct negative