Richland Creek — Predictions: 2026-06-22

Predictions issued: 5
Settled (peak window passed): 5

Issued 2026-06-22 15:20

Metric	Predicted	Actual	Error
Peak height	3.33 ft	1.97 ft	-1.36 ft
Peak time	2026-06-22 15:50	2026-06-22 12:00	—

Moisture: WET (1.72" 7-day, x1.50)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (10 events)

Band contributions

Band	Precip	Rise	Arrival	Intensity
1	1.56"	2.61 ft	15:05	HEAVY
2	1.46"	1.80 ft	15:24	HEAVY

Threshold crossings

• too_low_up: 2026-06-22 15:50

Issued 2026-06-22 14:20

Metric	Predicted	Actual	Error
Peak height	4.27 ft	1.84 ft	-2.43 ft
Peak time	2026-06-22 14:50	2026-06-22 11:00	—

Moisture: WET (1.62" 7-day, x1.50)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (10 events)

Band contributions

Band	Precip	Rise	Arrival	Intensity
1	1.46"	2.45 ft	14:53	HEAVY
2	1.38"	1.70 ft	15:14	HEAVY

Threshold crossings

• too_low_up: 2026-06-22 14:50
• low_floatable_up: 2026-06-22 14:50

Issued 2026-06-22 13:20

Metric	Predicted	Actual	Error
Peak height	3.19 ft	1.84 ft	-1.35 ft
Peak time	2026-06-22 14:50	2026-06-22 11:00	—

Moisture: NORMAL (1.50" 7-day, x1.00)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (10 events)

Band contributions

Band	Precip	Rise	Arrival	Intensity
1	1.33"	1.48 ft	14:41	HEAVY
2	1.26"	1.04 ft	15:05	HEAVY

Threshold crossings

• too_low_up: 2026-06-22 14:50

Issued 2026-06-22 12:20

Metric	Predicted	Actual	Error
Peak height	2.39 ft	1.84 ft	-0.55 ft
Peak time	2026-06-22 14:50	2026-06-22 11:00	—

Moisture: NORMAL (1.15" 7-day, x1.00)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (10 events)

Band contributions

Band	Precip	Rise	Arrival	Intensity
1	1.01"	1.13 ft	14:17	HEAVY
2	0.87"	0.72 ft	14:39	HEAVY

Issued 2026-06-22 11:20

Metric	Predicted	Actual	Error
Peak height	1.45 ft	1.58 ft	+0.13 ft
Peak time	2026-06-22 12:50	2026-06-22 09:00	—

Moisture: DRY (0.49" 7-day, x0.50)
Confidence: high — Well-calibrated (10 events)

Band contributions

Band	Precip	Rise	Arrival	Intensity
1	0.37"	0.17 ft	13:11	MODERATE
2	0.17"	0.04 ft	13:11	LIGHT