Richland Creek — Predictions: 2026-09-10
Rise predictions issued: 2
No-rise claims (quiet / too light) issued: 22
Settled (18-h window passed): 24
Issued 2026-09-11 03:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
0.28 ft |
1.42 ft |
+1.14 ft |
| Peak flow |
0 cfs |
25 cfs |
— |
| Peak time |
2026-09-11 04:20 |
2026-09-11 10:45 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 0.15 ft) |
— |
yes |
verified |
Moisture: VERY DRY (1.10" 7-day, x0.00)
Confidence: high — cautious, medium and eager dials all predict a rise; about 7 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep, 2015-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 1.0 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.51" |
0.00 ft |
— |
HEAVY |
| 2 |
1.02" |
0.00 ft |
— |
INTENSE |
Issued 2026-09-11 02:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
0.28 ft |
1.42 ft |
+1.14 ft |
| Peak flow |
0 cfs |
25 cfs |
— |
| Peak time |
2026-09-11 03:20 |
2026-09-11 10:45 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 0.15 ft) |
— |
yes |
verified |
Moisture: VERY DRY (0.54" 7-day, x0.00)
Confidence: high — cautious, medium and eager dials all predict a rise; about 7 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep, 2015-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 1.0 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.08" |
0.00 ft |
— |
LIGHT |
| 2 |
0.23" |
0.00 ft |
— |
MODERATE |
No-rise claims
Every hourly run that predicted no rise (quiet, rain too light, or a crest inside the noise floor). Settled: 22; verified 6; the gauge rose anyway on 16.
| Issued |
Level |
Engine |
Why |
Peak in 18 h |
Rose? |
Verdict |
| 04:20 |
0.22 ft |
v2 |
rain too light to drive a rise |
1.42 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 01:20 |
0.15 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
1.42 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 00:20 |
0.15 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
1.42 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 23:20 |
0.16 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
1.42 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 22:20 |
0.16 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
1.42 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 21:20 |
0.16 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
1.33 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 20:20 |
0.17 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
0.52 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 19:20 |
0.17 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
0.52 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 18:20 |
0.17 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
0.52 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 17:20 |
0.17 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
0.52 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 16:20 |
0.17 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
0.52 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 15:20 |
0.17 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
0.52 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 14:20 |
0.18 ft |
v1 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
0.48 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 13:20 |
0.18 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
0.37 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 12:20 |
0.18 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
0.32 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 11:20 |
0.17 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
0.30 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 10:20 |
0.18 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
0.27 ft |
no |
verified |
| 09:20 |
0.17 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
0.23 ft |
no |
verified |
| 08:20 |
0.17 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
0.18 ft |
no |
verified |
| 07:20 |
0.17 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
0.18 ft |
no |
verified |
| 06:20 |
0.17 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
0.18 ft |
no |
verified |
| 05:20 |
0.17 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
0.18 ft |
no |
verified |