Richland Creek — Predictions: 2026-09-11
Rise predictions issued: 16
No-rise claims (quiet / too light) issued: 8
Settled (18-h window passed): 24
Issued 2026-09-11 20:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
1.49 ft |
1.38 ft |
-0.11 ft |
| Peak flow |
30 cfs |
22 cfs |
x1.35 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-11 21:20 |
2026-09-11 15:30 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 1.38 ft) |
— |
no |
false alarm |
Moisture: VERY DRY (2.81" 7-day, x0.13)
Confidence: low — only the eager dial predicts a rise; about 2 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep (about 3 in 10 all year), 2015-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 1.0 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.58" |
0.12 ft |
22:20 |
LIGHT |
| 2 |
1.09" |
0.00 ft |
— |
MODERATE |
Issued 2026-09-11 19:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
1.61 ft |
1.38 ft |
-0.23 ft |
| Peak flow |
39 cfs |
22 cfs |
x1.75 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-11 21:20 |
2026-09-11 14:30 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 1.41 ft) |
— |
no |
false alarm |
Moisture: VERY DRY (2.81" 7-day, x0.13)
Confidence: medium — medium and eager dials predict a rise; the cautious dial does not; about 3 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep (about 4 in 10 all year), 2015-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 1.0 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.95" |
0.21 ft |
22:20 |
MODERATE |
| 2 |
1.72" |
0.00 ft |
— |
HEAVY |
Issued 2026-09-11 18:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
1.72 ft |
1.39 ft |
-0.33 ft |
| Peak flow |
50 cfs |
23 cfs |
x2.15 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-11 21:20 |
2026-09-11 13:30 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 1.42 ft) |
— |
no |
false alarm |
Moisture: VERY DRY (2.81" 7-day, x0.13)
Confidence: medium — medium and eager dials predict a rise; the cautious dial does not; about 3 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep (about 4 in 10 all year), 2015-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 1.0 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
1.12" |
0.32 ft |
22:20 |
MODERATE |
| 2 |
1.86" |
0.00 ft |
— |
HEAVY |
Issued 2026-09-11 17:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
1.85 ft |
1.41 ft |
-0.44 ft |
| Peak flow |
64 cfs |
24 cfs |
x2.62 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-11 21:20 |
2026-09-11 12:30 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 1.42 ft) |
— |
no |
false alarm |
Moisture: VERY DRY (2.81" 7-day, x0.13)
Confidence: medium — medium and eager dials predict a rise; the cautious dial does not; about 3 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep (about 4 in 10 all year), 2015-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 1.0 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
1.19" |
0.45 ft |
22:20 |
MODERATE |
| 2 |
1.95" |
0.00 ft |
— |
HEAVY |
Issued 2026-09-11 16:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
1.78 ft |
1.42 ft |
-0.36 ft |
| Peak flow |
54 cfs |
25 cfs |
x2.18 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-11 21:20 |
2026-09-11 11:30 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 0.96 ft) |
— |
yes |
verified |
Moisture: VERY DRY (2.81" 7-day, x0.13)
Confidence: high — cautious, medium and eager dials all predict a rise; about 7 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep, 2015-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 1.0 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
1.38" |
0.82 ft |
22:20 |
MODERATE |
| 2 |
2.12" |
0.00 ft |
— |
HEAVY |
Issued 2026-09-11 15:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
1.79 ft |
1.42 ft |
-0.37 ft |
| Peak flow |
54 cfs |
25 cfs |
x2.20 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-11 22:20 |
2026-09-11 10:45 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 0.51 ft) |
— |
yes |
verified |
Moisture: VERY DRY (2.81" 7-day, x0.13)
Confidence: high — cautious, medium and eager dials all predict a rise; about 7 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep, 2015-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 1.0 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
1.44" |
1.27 ft |
22:20 |
MODERATE |
| 2 |
2.19" |
0.00 ft |
— |
HEAVY |
Issued 2026-09-11 14:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
1.83 ft |
1.42 ft |
-0.41 ft |
| Peak flow |
59 cfs |
25 cfs |
x2.38 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-11 21:20 |
2026-09-11 10:45 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 0.50 ft) |
— |
yes |
verified |
Moisture: VERY DRY (2.81" 7-day, x0.13)
Confidence: high — cautious, medium and eager dials all predict a rise; about 7 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep, 2015-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 1.0 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
1.88" |
1.33 ft |
22:20 |
HEAVY |
| 2 |
2.99" |
0.00 ft |
— |
INTENSE |
Issued 2026-09-11 13:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
1.76 ft |
1.42 ft |
-0.34 ft |
| Peak flow |
52 cfs |
25 cfs |
x2.09 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-11 21:20 |
2026-09-11 10:45 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 0.50 ft) |
— |
yes |
verified |
Moisture: VERY DRY (2.71" 7-day, x0.12)
Confidence: high — cautious, medium and eager dials all predict a rise; about 7 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep, 2015-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 1.0 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
1.87" |
1.26 ft |
21:20 |
HEAVY |
| 2 |
3.05" |
0.00 ft |
— |
INTENSE |
Issued 2026-09-11 12:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
1.71 ft |
1.42 ft |
-0.29 ft |
| Peak flow |
47 cfs |
25 cfs |
x1.89 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-11 13:20 |
2026-09-11 10:45 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 0.52 ft) |
— |
yes |
verified |
Moisture: VERY DRY (2.54" 7-day, x0.10)
Confidence: high — cautious, medium and eager dials all predict a rise; about 7 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep, 2015-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 1.0 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
1.73" |
0.57 ft |
20:20 |
HEAVY |
| 2 |
2.83" |
0.62 ft |
13:20 |
INTENSE |
Issued 2026-09-11 11:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
2.24 ft |
1.42 ft |
-0.82 ft |
| Peak flow |
117 cfs |
25 cfs |
x4.72 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-11 12:20 |
2026-09-11 10:45 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 0.52 ft) |
— |
yes |
verified |
Moisture: VERY DRY (2.46" 7-day, x0.09)
Confidence: high — cautious, medium and eager dials all predict a rise; about 7 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep, 2015-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 1.0 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
1.66" |
0.38 ft |
19:20 |
HEAVY |
| 2 |
2.71" |
1.34 ft |
12:20 |
INTENSE |
Issued 2026-09-11 10:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
2.47 ft |
1.42 ft |
-1.05 ft |
| Peak flow |
162 cfs |
25 cfs |
x6.52 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-11 12:20 |
2026-09-11 10:45 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 0.52 ft) |
— |
yes |
verified |
Moisture: VERY DRY (2.34" 7-day, x0.08)
Confidence: high — cautious, medium and eager dials all predict a rise; about 7 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep, 2015-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 1.0 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
1.57" |
0.25 ft |
18:20 |
HEAVY |
| 2 |
2.55" |
1.70 ft |
12:20 |
INTENSE |
Issued 2026-09-11 09:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
2.50 ft |
1.42 ft |
-1.08 ft |
| Peak flow |
168 cfs |
25 cfs |
x6.75 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-11 12:20 |
2026-09-11 10:45 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 0.44 ft) |
— |
yes |
verified |
Moisture: VERY DRY (2.27" 7-day, x0.07)
Confidence: high — cautious, medium and eager dials all predict a rise; about 7 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep, 2015-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 1.0 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
1.52" |
0.21 ft |
18:20 |
HEAVY |
| 2 |
2.45" |
1.86 ft |
12:20 |
INTENSE |
Issued 2026-09-11 08:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
2.13 ft |
1.42 ft |
-0.71 ft |
| Peak flow |
99 cfs |
25 cfs |
x3.98 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-11 11:20 |
2026-09-11 10:45 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 0.35 ft) |
— |
yes |
verified |
Moisture: VERY DRY (2.05" 7-day, x0.04)
Confidence: high — cautious, medium and eager dials all predict a rise; about 7 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep, 2015-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 1.0 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
1.38" |
0.13 ft |
17:20 |
HEAVY |
| 2 |
2.11" |
1.65 ft |
11:20 |
INTENSE |
Issued 2026-09-11 07:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
1.22 ft |
1.42 ft |
+0.20 ft |
| Peak flow |
14 cfs |
25 cfs |
x0.58 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-11 10:20 |
2026-09-11 10:45 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 0.32 ft) |
— |
yes |
verified |
Moisture: VERY DRY (1.59" 7-day, x0.01)
Confidence: high — cautious, medium and eager dials all predict a rise; about 7 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep, 2015-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 1.0 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
1.01" |
0.00 ft |
— |
HEAVY |
| 2 |
1.49" |
0.90 ft |
10:20 |
INTENSE |
Issued 2026-09-11 06:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
0.97 ft |
1.42 ft |
+0.45 ft |
| Peak flow |
6 cfs |
25 cfs |
x0.25 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-11 09:20 |
2026-09-11 10:45 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 0.29 ft) |
— |
yes |
verified |
Moisture: VERY DRY (1.44" 7-day, x0.00)
Confidence: high — cautious, medium and eager dials all predict a rise; about 7 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep, 2015-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 1.0 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.84" |
0.00 ft |
— |
HEAVY |
| 2 |
1.37" |
0.68 ft |
09:20 |
INTENSE |
Issued 2026-09-11 05:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
0.75 ft |
1.42 ft |
+0.67 ft |
| Peak flow |
2 cfs |
25 cfs |
x0.09 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-11 08:20 |
2026-09-11 10:45 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 0.25 ft) |
— |
yes |
verified |
Moisture: VERY DRY (1.35" 7-day, x0.00)
Confidence: high — cautious, medium and eager dials all predict a rise; about 7 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep, 2015-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 1.0 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.77" |
0.00 ft |
— |
HEAVY |
| 2 |
1.28" |
0.47 ft |
08:20 |
INTENSE |
No-rise claims
Every hourly run that predicted no rise (quiet, rain too light, or a crest inside the noise floor). Settled: 8; verified 8; the gauge rose anyway on 0.
| Issued |
Level |
Engine |
Why |
Peak in 18 h |
Rose? |
Verdict |
| 04:20 |
1.18 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
1.15 ft |
no |
verified |
| 03:20 |
1.21 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
1.16 ft |
no |
verified |
| 02:20 |
1.24 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
1.19 ft |
no |
verified |
| 01:20 |
1.27 ft |
v2 |
rain too light to drive a rise |
1.22 ft |
no |
verified |
| 00:20 |
1.31 ft |
v2 |
rain too light to drive a rise |
1.25 ft |
no |
verified |
| 23:20 |
1.35 ft |
v2 |
rain too light to drive a rise |
1.29 ft |
no |
verified |
| 22:20 |
1.37 ft |
v2 |
rain too light to drive a rise |
1.33 ft |
no |
verified |
| 21:20 |
1.38 ft |
v2 |
rain too light to drive a rise |
1.35 ft |
no |
verified |