Richland Creek — Predictions: 2026-09-12
Rise predictions issued: 4
No-rise claims (quiet / too light) issued: 20
Settled (18-h window passed): 24
Issued 2026-09-12 22:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
1.39 ft |
1.81 ft |
+0.42 ft |
| Peak flow |
23 cfs |
57 cfs |
x0.41 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-12 23:20 |
2026-09-12 18:30 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 1.01 ft) |
— |
yes |
verified |
Moisture: DRY (3.32" 7-day, x0.05)
Confidence: high — cautious, medium and eager dials all predict a rise; about 7 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep, 2015-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 1.0 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.42" |
0.05 ft |
07:20 |
MODERATE |
| 2 |
0.71" |
0.33 ft |
23:20 |
HEAVY |
Issued 2026-09-12 21:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
1.59 ft |
1.81 ft |
+0.22 ft |
| Peak flow |
37 cfs |
57 cfs |
x0.65 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-12 22:20 |
2026-09-12 18:30 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 1.04 ft) |
— |
yes |
verified |
Moisture: DRY (3.30" 7-day, x0.06)
Confidence: high — cautious, medium and eager dials all predict a rise; about 7 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep, 2015-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 1.0 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.41" |
0.03 ft |
05:20 |
MODERATE |
| 2 |
0.68" |
0.53 ft |
23:20 |
HEAVY |
Issued 2026-09-12 20:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
1.69 ft |
1.81 ft |
+0.12 ft |
| Peak flow |
45 cfs |
57 cfs |
x0.80 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-12 22:20 |
2026-09-12 18:30 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 1.07 ft) |
— |
yes |
verified |
Moisture: DRY (3.29" 7-day, x0.11)
Confidence: high — cautious, medium and eager dials all predict a rise; about 7 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep, 2015-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 1.0 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.40" |
0.02 ft |
04:20 |
MODERATE |
| 2 |
0.68" |
0.60 ft |
22:20 |
HEAVY |
Issued 2026-09-12 19:20
| Metric |
Predicted |
Actual |
Error |
| Peak height |
1.65 ft |
1.81 ft |
+0.16 ft |
| Peak flow |
42 cfs |
57 cfs |
x0.73 |
| Peak time |
2026-09-12 22:20 |
2026-09-12 18:30 |
— |
| Gauge rose (≥ +0.10 ft over 0.96 ft) |
— |
yes |
verified |
Moisture: DRY (3.29" 7-day, x0.22)
Confidence: high — cautious, medium and eager dials all predict a rise; about 7 in 10 rise calls at this confidence have verified in Jun-Sep, 2015-2026 replay
Engine: v2 — gauge 1.0 h behind the rain clock
Band contributions
| Band |
Precip |
Rise |
Arrival |
Intensity |
| 1 |
0.40" |
0.02 ft |
04:20 |
MODERATE |
| 2 |
0.68" |
0.66 ft |
22:20 |
HEAVY |
No-rise claims
Every hourly run that predicted no rise (quiet, rain too light, or a crest inside the noise floor). Settled: 20; verified 5; the gauge rose anyway on 15.
| Issued |
Level |
Engine |
Why |
Peak in 18 h |
Rose? |
Verdict |
| 04:20 |
1.56 ft |
v2 |
rain too light to drive a rise |
1.47 ft |
no |
verified |
| 03:20 |
1.63 ft |
v2 |
rain too light to drive a rise |
1.53 ft |
no |
verified |
| 02:20 |
1.71 ft |
v2 |
rain too light to drive a rise |
1.60 ft |
no |
verified |
| 01:20 |
1.78 ft |
v2 |
rain too light to drive a rise |
1.67 ft |
no |
verified |
| 00:20 |
1.74 ft |
v2 |
rain too light to drive a rise |
1.74 ft |
no |
verified |
| 23:20 |
1.02 ft |
v2 |
rain too light to drive a rise |
1.81 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 18:20 |
0.97 ft |
v2 |
rain too light to drive a rise |
1.81 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 17:20 |
0.98 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
1.81 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 16:20 |
0.99 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
1.81 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 15:20 |
1.01 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
1.81 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 14:20 |
1.02 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
1.81 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 13:20 |
1.04 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
1.81 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 12:20 |
1.05 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
1.81 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 11:20 |
1.06 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
1.81 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 10:20 |
1.08 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
1.81 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 09:20 |
1.09 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
1.81 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 08:20 |
1.11 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
1.81 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 07:20 |
1.12 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
1.81 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 06:20 |
1.14 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
1.81 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |
| 05:20 |
1.15 ft |
v2 |
quiet (no upstream rainfall) |
1.80 ft |
yes |
MISSED RISE |