Daily Analysis

PRE-ANALYSIS (per-gauge facts, all times CDT):

• Boxley (height): (a) first 2.48 ft @00:00; (b) max 2.48 ft @00:00; (c) last 2.33 ft @23:30; (d) intraday low 2.33 ft @23:30; (e) no low→peak rise — strictly monotonic decline (−0.15 ft over the day); (f) Boxley-zone peak-1hr QPE 0.134" @20:02 CDT (HUC 0201) → no gauge rise to attribute.
• Ponca (discharge): (a) 174 @00:00; (b) max 177 @00:15; (c) last 141 @23:30; (d) low 141 @23:30; (e) none — pure recession 177→141 cfs; (f) Ponca-zone peak-1hr 0.050" @21:02 CDT → no response.
• Pruitt (height/discharge): (a) 4.57 ft / 367 cfs @00:00; (b) max 4.57 ft @00:00 / 367 cfs @00:00; (c) last 4.32 ft / 287 cfs @23:30; (d) low 4.31 ft / 284 cfs @21:45; (e) +0.03 ft (4.31→4.34) / +9 cfs (284→293) low @21:45 → 22:45, 1.0-hr — micro-wobble; (f) Pruitt-zone peak-1hr 0.049" @11:02 CDT.
• St. Joe (height/discharge): (a) 6.24 ft / 1650 cfs @00:00; (b) max 6.24 ft / 1650 cfs @00:00; (c) last 5.67 ft / 1230 cfs @22:45; (d) low 5.67 ft / 1230 cfs @22:45; (e) none — pure recession; (f) St. Joe-zone peak-1hr 0.254" @12:02 CDT (Shop Cr 0101) → no response.
• Harriet (height/discharge): (a) 6.11 ft / 2230 cfs @00:00; (b) max 6.11 ft / 2230 cfs @00:00; (c) last 5.64 ft / 1730 cfs @22:45; (d) low 5.62 ft / 1710 cfs @22:30; (e) +0.02 ft (5.62→5.64) / +20 cfs (1710→1730) @22:30→22:45 — tail wobble; (f) Harriet-zone peak-1hr 0.173" @12:02 CDT (Spring Cr 0.202").
• Richland (height): (a) 1.97 ft; (b) max 1.98 ft @00:30; (c) last 1.75 ft @23:00; (d) low 1.75 ft @23:00; (e) none — pure recession; (f) Richland-zone peak-1hr 0.097" @20:02 CDT (Falling Water).
• Bear Cr (height/discharge): (a) 2.85 ft / 111 cfs; (b) max 2.85 ft / 111 cfs @00:00; (c) last 2.69 ft / 79.9 cfs @23:15; (d) low 2.69 ft / 79.9 cfs @23:15; (e) none — pure recession; (f) Bear-zone peak-1hr 0.045" @12:02 CDT.

1. PRECIPITATION SUMMARY

First measurable rain since Day 107 — light, distributed, low-intensity. Basin-max 24-hr 0.216" (Boxley zone, HUC 0201 Terrapin Branch, peak 0.134"/hr @20:02). Two loose centers: a midday cell over the St. Joe little-Buffalo sub-group (Shop Cr 0101 0.316" with a 0.254"/hr burst @12:02 — the day's highest 1-hr value) and Harriet zone (Spring Cr 0409 0.202"/0.173"/hr @12:02; Brush Cr 0405 0.153"), plus the evening Boxley pulse. Zone averages: Boxley 0.216", Harriet 0.117", Pruitt 0.097", Richland 0.088", Ponca 0.088", St. Joe 0.077", Bear 0.059". No zone reached even 0.25" average; all well below detection thresholds for an actively-receding watershed. Antecedent remains moist-to-wet (Bear HUC 0403 7-day 4.68", Richland 4.5–4.6", Boxley 1.59").

2. GAUGE RESPONSES

None attributable. Every gauge remained in pure flood-limb recession (Event-20 recession Day 5). The only within-day upticks were trivial recession-tail wobbles at Pruitt (+0.03 ft @22:45) and Harriet (+0.02 ft @22:45) — both precede or coincide with no coherent forcing peak and are sub-rating-resolution, classed as noise per the Day-108 timing-discipline rule. Despite the St. Joe zone receiving a 0.254"/hr Shop Cr burst and Boxley receiving 0.216", neither gauge ticked up.

Threshold crossing: Ponca crossed below 150 cfs into Too Low (~16:00 CDT, 148 cfs; ended 141 cfs) — confirms the Day-109 prediction (Open Q12e) that Ponca crosses 150 within Days 110–111. Ponca is the first mainstem gauge to leave Low-but-Floatable. St. Joe (1230 cfs / 5.67 ft) and Harriet (1730 cfs / 5.64 ft) remain solidly mid-Optimal (Optimal window Day 5); Pruitt 287 cfs Optimal; Boxley 2.33 ft (seepage, below all recreational thresholds).

3. RAINFALL-RESPONSE PAIRS

No valid pairs — this is a non-detection day, the higher-forcing analog of Days 104/108. Key negative datapoint: Boxley zone 0.216" (0.134"/hr) on a draining pool (2.48→2.33 ft, slow seepage) produced zero uptick. This sits above the Day-108 absorbed floor (0.146"/0.175"-HUC) yet still registered nothing on an actively-receding watershed. The absorbed-pulse floor on a receding basin is therefore at least ~0.22" zone-average (forcing-magnitude-gated, not antecedent-gated — soils here are wetter than Day 104, Bear 7-day 4.68"). For Boxley specifically this remains far below the ~0.5" pool-fill barrier, so non-response is fully expected.

No transfer ratio or lag computable today; nothing to compare against prior events except to extend the Open-Q10 detection-floor finding upward.

4. DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION

None. No coherent rise propagated through the mainstem chain. Recession-rate points (extends the dQ/dt-vs-Q curve, low-Optimal band): - St. Joe: 1650→1230 cfs over 22.75 hr ≈ 18.5 cfs/hr @ ~1400 cfs (stage ~0.025 ft/hr). Fits the monotonic curve below Event-19's ~32 @1500 and Event-20 Day-109's ~28 @2000. - Harriet: 2230→1730 cfs ≈ 22 cfs/hr @ ~1980 cfs (stage ~0.022 ft/hr); persistent limb offset confirmed again — Harriet sits ~500 cfs above St. Joe, falls modestly faster absolute. - Boxley: ~0.0064 ft/hr seepage. Bear: 111→79.9 cfs, flashy tail near pre-event baseline.

5. MULTI-DAY EVENTS

Today is Event-20 recession Day 5 with a superimposed light, sub-threshold rain. The QPE peak-1hr times running into 2026-06-19 ~01–02Z (evening CDT) suggest the cells may continue overnight — flag as possible onset of a new minor event. If tonight/tomorrow adds another ≥0.3–0.5" coherent pulse on this wet antecedent, Pruitt/Boxley could finally cross detection; today alone is non-detection.

6. ANOMALIES OR SURPRISES

No surprises. Fully consistent with the forcing-magnitude-gated detection floor: ~0.06–0.22" distributed rain on a wet but actively-receding basin produces zero response at all seven gauges. The Shop Cr 0.254"/hr burst landing inside St. Joe's own zone with no trunk perturbation reinforces that a single sub-zone 1-hr burst at low total is sub-threshold for the integrating trunk. Still no USGS rating-curve step at any gauge through Day 110 — five days post-record-peak with >2× flood stages, the historically-expected post-major-event field-revision artifact has not appeared. Keep watching Bear/Richland/Pruitt.