Classification: correct Confidence: The model continues to perform well on quiet days with very dry antecedent conditions, consistently predicting minimal flow responses. Confidence in the current calibration is high for low-rainfall events.
Physics model correctly predicted a negligible flow response (1.7 CFS) to light rainfall in very dry conditions, closely matching the observed 2.01 CFS peak.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak CFS | 2 CFS | 2 CFS | -0 CFS |
| Total rise | — | 0.9 CFS | — |
Headline: No rise indicated by recent rainfall LLM said headline was correct: True Notes: The empirical headline 'No rise indicated by recent rainfall' was correct as the gauge peaked at 2.01 CFS, far below the 500 CFS low threshold.
| Band | Zone | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ? | 0.53" | 0 CFS | MODERATE |
The physics model accurately predicted a small peak flow rise (1.7 CFS predicted vs 2.01 CFS actual, -14.9% error) resulting from a light rainfall event (0.529") in very dry antecedent conditions (VERY DRY tier). Although the timing was off by ~5 hours, the magnitude prediction was well within the acceptable error range for a quiet day, and the model correctly identified that the response would be minimal due to low antecedent moisture and moderate rainfall intensity.
The empirical forecast headline 'No rise indicated by recent rainfall' was also justified. Given the VERY DRY antecedent conditions and the relatively low total rainfall, the gauge remained well below the 'low' threshold (500 CFS), with a peak of only 2.01 CFS. The model correctly anticipated that the rainfall would not generate a meaningful rise relative to the gauge thresholds, and the actual data confirms this was a quiet day.
Predictions issued today (archive): 12 active issuance(s) from 2026-09-12T17:21:02.566430+00:00 to 2026-09-13T04:21:01.872001+00:00; issued peaks ranged 1.5 to 1.7 CFS. The prediction graded below is the HIGHEST issued peak of the day (issued 2026-09-12T22:21:02.585763+00:00), not the last card of the day.
Grade-only mode: no adjustments suggested; calibration is fit offline.