Classification: correct Confidence: Model confidence remains high; consistent correct predictions on low-rise events reinforce the current calibration.
The physics model accurately predicted a negligible peak flow response (4.5 CFS) to light rainfall in very dry conditions, closely matching the observed 4.79 CFS peak.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak CFS | 4 CFS | 5 CFS | -0 CFS |
| Total rise | — | 1.0 CFS | — |
Headline: No rise indicated by recent rainfall LLM said headline was correct: True Notes: The 'No rise indicated' headline was justified as the gauge peaked at 4.79 CFS, well below the 500 CFS low threshold.
| Band | Zone | Precip | Predicted Rise | Intensity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ? | 0.60" | 0 CFS | MODERATE |
The physics model correctly anticipated a minor rise in the Boxley basin, predicting a peak of 4.5 CFS against an observed 4.79 CFS, resulting in a peak error of -6.3%. This aligns with the model's recent history of correctly identifying quiet days during antecedent dry conditions. The slight underprediction is well within the acceptable ±15-20% margin for this class of event, confirming that the response coefficient remains appropriately tuned for light rainfall in very dry soils.
The empirical forecast correctly issued a 'No rise indicated' headline, as the gauge remained well below the low threshold of 500 CFS throughout the event. The actual rise of 1.0 CFS was not significant enough to change the operational tier, validating the empirical model's conservative approach to low-intensity, dry-condition rainfall. Both the physics and empirical models demonstrated high reliability in their respective domains, with no calibration adjustments necessary at this time.
Predictions issued today (archive): 15 active issuance(s) from 2026-09-21T07:21:02.044602+00:00 to 2026-09-21T21:21:02.090555+00:00; issued peaks ranged 3.7 to 4.5 CFS. The prediction graded below is the HIGHEST issued peak of the day (issued 2026-09-21T11:21:01.714594+00:00), not the last card of the day.
Grade-only mode: no adjustments suggested; calibration is fit offline.