Empirical Forecasts — Hailstone (upper Buffalo) — 2026-06-08

Forecasts archived: 4
Settled (expiry passed): 4

Hailstone (upper Buffalo)

18:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 26.7 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band p50_to_p75, confidence medium - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 18:30 UTC)

17:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 26.6 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band p50_to_p75, confidence medium - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 17:45 UTC)

16:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 25.1 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band p50_to_p75, confidence medium - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 17:45 UTC)

15:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 22.0 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p50_to_p75, confidence high - Outcome: MISSED_HIGHER (actual max: medium, crossed: 17:45 UTC)