Empirical Forecasts — Hailstone (upper Buffalo) — 2026-06-14

Forecasts archived: 6
Settled (expiry passed): 6

Hailstone (upper Buffalo)

12:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 20.7 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p50_to_p75, confidence high - Outcome: MISSED_HIGHER (actual max: medium, crossed: 12:30 UTC)

11:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 20.7 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p50_to_p75, confidence high - Outcome: MISSED_HIGHER (actual max: medium, crossed: 11:45 UTC)

10:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 19.7 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p50_to_p75, confidence high - Outcome: MISSED_HIGHER (actual max: medium, crossed: 11:45 UTC)

09:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 17.7 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p25_to_p50, confidence high - Outcome: MISSED_HIGHER (actual max: medium, crossed: 11:45 UTC)

08:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 21.7 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to LOW, band p50_to_p75, confidence high - Outcome: MISSED_HIGHER (actual max: medium, crossed: 11:45 UTC)

07:18 UTC — current tier: below_low. QPE 6h: 25.2 mm (moist soil). - Forecast: rise to MEDIUM, band p50_to_p75, confidence medium - Outcome: VERIFIED (actual max: medium, crossed: 12:00 UTC)