Buffalo River Intelligence

7 USGS Gauges · Boxley to Harriet · 37 HUC12 Watersheds

Data age: 5 min

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Understand the math: Horizons · Wave tracker · Local rain · Recession · Confidence · Ponca AI card · Neural net

Ponca Gauge — AI Rainfall Event Analysis
The rain is still falling over the creeks and picking up, so expect the river to start lifting from its dead-still 2 cfs soon. Since the storm is moving through fast, it should crest shortly and likely drop unless that extra half-inch sticks. Check back in the next couple of hours to see if it finally climbs into floatable territory.
Now: 2 cfs (Too Low)  ·  0.98″ rain this event  ·  ~6% chance >1,600 cfs
Experimental AI analysis of upstream rainfall vs. historical events — not a forecast; verify against the gauge.

Mainstem Gauges — Upstream to Downstream

Each card’s level is the gauge reading on that card’s own level set (listed at the bottom of the card). Rise, wave and chance lines are forecasts; when two of them disagree, the card says so.

Boxley
5 cfs
Too Low
Steady
as of 2:30 AM CT
Gauge precip: 0.55" (24hr)
Rise Prediction
Local rain: 51% chance of a rise in 5.5–14.7 hr; if it rises, typically +25–164 cfs (median +64)
Chance of Rising (next 12 h, from rain already fallen)
Low but Floatable (200 cfs) ~7% · Optimal (350 cfs) ~2%
history of past storms at this gauge · experimental
Recession
Already below thresholds
Ponca
2 cfs
Too Low
Steady
as of 3:00 AM CT
Gauge precip: 0.85" (24hr)
Recession
Already below thresholds
Pruitt
9 cfs
Too Low
Steady at +2 cfs/hr
as of 3:00 AM CT
Gauge precip: 0.48" (24hr)
Rise Prediction
Local rain: 74% chance of a rise in 13.0–27.3 hr; if it rises, typically +15–125 cfs (median +48)
Recession
Already below thresholds
St. Joe
42 cfs
Low but Floatable
Slight Rise at +5 cfs/hr
as of 2:45 AM CT
Gauge precip: 0.77" (24hr)
Recession
Rising
Harriet
61 cfs
Low but Floatable
Steady
as of 2:45 AM CT
Gauge precip: 0.81" (24hr)
Recession
Suppressed — active rainfall

Tributary Signal Gauges

Richland Creek
0.2 cfs ➡
Signals for: St Joe
as of 2:00 AM CT
Gauge precip: N/A" (24hr)
Bear Creek
8.2 cfs ➡
Signals for: Harriet
as of 2:15 AM CT
Gauge precip: N/A" (24hr)

QPE = Precipitation Estimate (observed) · QPF = Precipitation Forecast

0"
0.01–0.24"
0.25–0.49"
0.50–0.99"
1.00–1.99"
2.00"+

Zone Rainfall

Zone1hr3hr6hr12hr24hrQPF 24hr
Boxley (2 HUC12s)0.060"0.300"0.411"0.739"1.048"0.76"
Ponca (3 HUC12s)0.025"0.276"0.459"0.780"0.978"0.75"
Pruitt (3 HUC12s)0.124"0.450"0.543"0.837"0.902"1.09"
St. Joe (15 HUC12s)0.109"0.373"0.426"0.745"0.796"1.29"
Richland Cr. (2 HUC12s)0.167"0.270"0.396"0.870"0.880"0.98"
Bear Creek (2 HUC12s)0.043"0.223"0.385"0.823"0.823"1.68"
Harriet (5 HUC12s)0.031"0.253"0.335"0.765"0.767"1.45"
Ungauged (8 HUC12s)0.038"0.261"0.353"0.653"0.655"—
Watershed Total 0.793" (24hr)
MRMS file: 2026-10-02T08:00:00Z

3-Day Forecast

Updated: 12:30 AM CT

Ponca
Overnight
65°
None
None
Friday
70° / 57°
Showers And Thunderstorms
NNE 5 to 10 mph
Saturday
71° / 57°
Chance Rain Showers
ENE 5 mph
St. Joe
Overnight
66°
None
None
Friday
74° / 58°
Showers And Thunderstorms
NNE 0 to 5 mph
Saturday
73° / 57°
Slight Chance Rain Showers
0 mph
Buffalo City
Overnight
66°
None
None
Friday
69° / 57°
Showers And Thunderstorms
NNE 5 to 10 mph
Saturday
68° / 57°
Slight Chance Rain Showers
NE 0 to 10 mph

Gauge Flow Legend

GaugeToo LowLow but FloatableOptimalFlood
Boxley
Boxley → Ponca
< 200200–350350–1,600≥ 1,600
Ponca
Ponca → Pruitt
< 130130–200200–1,6001≥ 1,600
Pruitt
Pruitt → Hasty
< 100100–200200–2,000≥ 2,000
St. Joe
Woolum / Tyler Bend → Gilbert
< 4040–200200–8,000≥ 8,000
Harriet
Maumee → Buffalo Point / Rush
< 6060–200200–9,370≥ 9,370
Flows in cfs. Each gauge card is coloured by where its current flow falls in this table.
1 Ponca: Experienced paddlers only from 800 cfs
📖 Historical Levels & Storm Archive →
Ponca · Pruitt · St. Joe · Harriet — this date in history, days per level, every storm rise since 1939
🔬 Buffalo Study Archive →
The 122-day AI-driven study of how rain becomes river rise in the Buffalo watershed (March–June 2026): hypothesis, nightly analyses and findings
Gauges Watersheds Ozark Rain Map
Cossatot Intelligence Richland Intelligence Mulberry Intelligence Big Piney Intelligence Illinois River Intel Branson Creeks St. Francis Intel Hailstone Intelligence Buffalo Intelligence
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DISCLAIMER: This site provides creek condition estimates for informational purposes only. Gauge data, radar estimates, and forecasts may be delayed, inaccurate, or unavailable. Always exercise independent judgment. Whitewater kayaking is inherently dangerous — water conditions can change rapidly. This site and its maintainers assume no responsibility for decisions made based on information displayed here.